Can fiscal rules help reduce macroeconomic volatility in the Latin America and Caribbean Region?

The debate on fiscal policy in Europe centers on how to let automatic stabilizers work while achieving fiscal consolidation. There is significant agreement on the importance of using fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical instrument, as monetary policy can no longer play this role. In contrast, most of the discussion on fiscal policy in Latin America and the Carribean region (LAC) deals just on solvency issues, largely ignoring the effects of the economic cycle. This is surprising as LAC economies are much more volatile than their European counterparts and have been generally applying pro-cyclical fiscal policies that exacerbate volatility. Some analysts and policymakers appear to think that counter-cyclical fiscal policies are a luxury that only industrial countries can indulge in or, at least, that LAC countries (with the exception of Chile) that have successfully put in place a counter-cyclical fiscal policy need to deal first with pressing adjustment and solvency issues before they attempt to reduce the highly pro-cyclical character of their fiscal policies. The author argues that this is a major mistake because the costs of pro-cyclical fiscal policies in LAC are huge in growth and welfare terms, especially for the poor, and because pro-cyclical policies and rules tend to develop a deficit bias, thus ending up being nonsustainable and noncredible. Perry illustrates both propositions. He then examines the causes of the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policies in LAC and discusses how well-designed fiscal rules may help to deal with the political economy and credibility factors behind pro-cyclicality. He also examines conflicts between flexibility and credibility in rules, showing how a good design can both facilitate the operation of automatic stabilizers while at the same time supporting solvency goals and enhancing credibility. Perry evaluates the experience with different fiscal rules and institutions in LAC to see the extent they have helped or can help to achieve the twin goals of avoiding deficit and pro-cyclical biases.Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Labor Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,Environmental Economics&Policies,National Governance

The anatomy of a multiple crisis : why was Argentina special and what can we learn from it?

The Argentine crisis has been variously blamed on fiscal imbalances, real overvaluation, and self-fulfilling investor pessimism triggering a capital flow reversal. The authors provide an encompassing assessment of the role of these and other ingredients in the recent macroeconomic collapse. They show that in the final years of convertibility,Argentina was not hit harder than other emerging markets in Latin America and elsewhere by global terms-of-trade and financial disturbances. So the crisis reflects primarily the high vulnerability to disturbances built into Argentina's policy framework. Three key sources of vulnerability are examined: the hard peg adopted against optimal currency area considerations in a context of wage and price inflexibility; the fragile fiscal position resulting from an expansionary stance in the boom; and the pervasive mismatches in the portfolios of banks'borrowers. While there were important vulnerabilities in each of these areas, neither of them was higher than those affecting other countries in the region, and thus there is not one obvious suspect. But the three reinforced each other in such a perverse way that taken jointly they led to a much larger vulnerability to adverse external shocks than in any other country in the region. Underlying these vulnerabilities was a deep structural problem of the Argentine economy that led to harsh policy dilemmas before and after the crisis erupted. On the one hand, the Argentine trade structure made a peg to the dollar highly inconvenient from the point of view of the real economy. On the other hand, the strong preference of Argentinians for the dollar as a store of value-after the hyperinflation and confiscation experiences of the 1980s-had led to a highly dollarized economy in which a hard peg or even full dollarization seemed reasonable alternatives from a financial point of view.Banks&Banking Reform,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Macroeconomic Management,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Banks&Banking Reform

Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001

The authors test for the existence of asset price bubbles in Latin America in 1980-2001, focusing mainly on stock prices. Based on unit root and cointegration tests, they find that they cannot reject the hypothesis of bubbles. They arrive at the same conclusion using Froot and Obstfeld's intrinsic bubbles model. To examine empirical regularities of these bubble episodes in the region, the authors identify periods of significant stock price overvaluation. They quantify the relative importance of different factors that determine the probability of bubble occurrence, focusing on the contrast between the country-specific variables and the common external factors. They include as country-specific variables both the level and the volatility of domestic credit growth, the volatility of asset returns, the capital flows to each country, and the terms of trade. As common external variables, they consider the degree of asset overvaluation in the U.S. stock and real estate markets and the term spread of U.S. Treasury securities. To quantitatively assess the relative importance of each factor, they estimate a logit model for a panel of five Latin American countries from 1985 to 2001. In general, the authors find that the marginal probabilities of common and country-specific variables are of roughly the same order of magnitude. This finding contrasts with those of previous studies that real asset returns in Latin America are dominated by local factors. Finally, the authors explore the main channels through which asset prices affect real economic activity, with the most important being the balance sheet effect and its impact on bank lending. They show how the allocation of bank lending across different sectors responded sensitively to real estate prices during the boom years in countries that experienced banking crises. Thus asset price bubbles have long-lasting effects in the financial sector and, through this channel, on growth. Another channel through which asset prices-particularly stock market prices-affect long-run growth is through their effect on investment. The authors find a strong positive association between stock prices and investment and a negative effect of stock price volatility on investment. An additional motive for the central bank to monitor asset prices is the general coincidence of the crash episodes identified by the authors with currency crises in the region in the past two decades.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Environmental Economics&Policies

Industrial policies in Colombia

"Latin American and Caribbean countries underperformance relative to other developing countries in terms of productivity growth has reflected on moderate average economic growth of the region over the last 15 years. Colombia is no exception".Política industrial, Productividad, Crecimiento económico, Colombia

Inequality in Latin America : determinants and consequences

Latin America is together with Sub-Saharan Africa the most unequal region of the world. This paper documents recent inequality trends in the Latin American region, going beyond traditional measures of income inequality. The paper also reviews some of the explanations that have been put forward to understand the current situation, and discusses why reducing income inequality should be an important policy priority. In particular, the authors discuss channels through which inequality can affect growth and output volatility. On the whole, the analysis suggests a two-pronged approach to reduce inequality in the region that combines policies aimed at improving the distribution of assets (especially education) with elements aimed at improving the capacity of the state to redistribute income through taxes and transfers.Inequality,Rural Poverty Reduction,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Achieving Shared Growth,Poverty Impact Evaluation

The Political Economy of Fiscal Reform: The Case of Colombia, 1986-2006

This paper explores the characteristics of the political economy process that conditioned the scope and success of the combination of fiscal reforms before and after Colombia’s 1991 constitutional reforms. Using formal analysis of reforms and interviews with actors, reforms in taxation, decentralization, the budgetary process and pensions are examined in times of political crisis, economic crisis, and economic boom. The results generally confirm the hypothesis that increased political fragmentation and limited unilateral executive power after the 1991 reforms restricted the extent of reforms, particularly in tax law. Nonetheless, the enactment of piecemeal reforms was encouraged by crisis conditions.Policymaking process, Political economy, Structural reform, Colombia

Output fluctuations in Latin America - what explains the recent slowdown?

The authors explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Nino). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50-60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogeneous variables, such as domestic real interest rates, and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial performance data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector auto-regressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the sub-period 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors.Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Economic Theory&Research,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Macroeconomic Management,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth

Mining Taxation in Colombia

This paper first assesses the current Colombian mining tax-and-royalty regime in comparison with other countries from the points of view of efficiency, competitiveness and revenue performance. It then discusses the theoretical convenience of introducing alternative designs for a resource rent tax (RRT) to be applied to new mining projects, together with a reduced common royalty rate for all minerals, and simulates their potential efficiency, competitiveness and revenue-performance effects. In particular, it examines alternative interactions between the RRT, the royalty regime and the corporate income tax (royalties creditable against the RRT or deductible from its tax base; accepting or not corporate income tax deductibility from the RRT tax base), under alternative RRT tax rates. It also discusses alternative capital return allowances and the pros and cons of project-by-project versus sectorial ring fencing, and sharing RRT revenues between the national and sub-national governments. It concludes with a detailed blueprint for reform based on these discussions, assessments and simulations, as well as political economy and administrative considerations for the specific case of Colombia.Este trabajo evalúa la eficiencia, competitividad y capacidad de recaudo del régimen tributario y de regalías colombiano en comparación con el de otros países mineros relevantes. Posteriormente, propone la implementación de un “Resource Rent Tax” (RRT) para proyectos mineros futuros (junto con una reducción y unificación de la tasa de regalías entre minerales) y modela el impacto que tendría éste sobre la eficiencia y el recaudo. Se examinan la interacción entre el RRT, las regalías y el impuesto de renta bajo distintos diseños y tasas de RRT y costo de oportunidad del capital. También se analiza si es preferible tener “ringfencing” a nivel de proyecto o a nivel sectorial. El trabajo concluye con una propuesta de reforma junto con consideraciones administrativas y políticas para una exitosa implementación

El impacto del petróleo y la minería en el desarrollo regional y local en Colombia.

Este trabajo estudia el impacto de la explotación de hidrocarburos y minerales sobre el desarrollo regional y local reciente en Colombia. Examina si los Departamentos y Municipios productores de hidrocarburos y carbón, y receptores de regalíashan crecido más, o presentan mayores niveles de PIB per cápita, en comparación con los departamentos que no se han beneficiado de éstos recursos. Asimismo, explora si hay diferencias en el comportamiento fiscal entre las regiones receptoras y no receptoras de regalías. En adición, analiza si la disponibilidad de regalías tiene efectos sobre crecimiento y comportamiento fiscal diferentes a los que presenta la disponibilidad de transferencias de recursos nacionales del Sistema General de Participaciones, que constituye otra fuente exógena de recursos para los entes territoriales. Por último, el trabajo presenta alguna evidencia parcial, con estudios de caso, del impacto de la producción minera y las regalías sobre otras variables claves tales como la educación, la salud y la infraestructura pública.Recursos Naturales, Instituciones, Colombia, Regalías, carbón, Petróleo.

Climate-Related Meteorological and Hydrological Regimes and Their Influence On Recruitment of Gulf Menhaden (\u3ci\u3eBrevoortia patronus\u3c/i\u3e) In the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Abundances of Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) are heavily influenced by physical and biological processes that affect refuge and food availability. This study identified specific decadal and interannual responses in the recruitment of Gulf menhaden to local meteorological and hydrological regimes imposed by the coupling of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases and by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Numbers of age-0 menhaden in fishery-independent surveys and numbers and proportions of Gulf menhaden ages 1–6 in commercial purse-seine landings in the northern GOM were used to investigate those responses. High postlarval abundance of Gulf menhaden (3.6/beam plankton haul) in the central region was related to the decadal wet regime associated with AMO cold and NAO positive phases. Elevated numbers of menhaden species (38.3/seine haul) in the western region were related to interannual wet regimes associated with ENSO warm and neutral events. High commercial landings of Gulf menhaden (10 million fish/vessel ton week) were related to the decadal average hydrological regime associated with AMO cold and NAO negative phases. Climate regimes may favor growth and survival by structuring offshore and inshore nursery habitats or by synchronizing release of larvae when offshore and inshore nursery conditions are favorable